Flau'jae Johnson over 3.5 rebounds · 2026-08-26
“Projected 4.868 rebounds; called over 3.5 rebounds; he got 3 — missed the line by 0.5.”
projected 4.868 reboundsactual 3missed by 0.5model prob 72%
🏀 WNBA receipts 🧾
Every angle we publish gets graded against the box score, and the receipts live here — how close the projection was, whether the call cleared, and by how much. Hits and misses both. If the numbers are ugly some week, you'll see that too.
The picks we stand behind
Prime picks hit 55%
855 of 1545 graded · solid picks 59% (550)
We grade every call — hits and misses — but a low-conviction lean shouldn't count the same as a top pick. This is how the plays we actually feature have done. It's this model's record only — earlier results were a different, since-fixed model.
The model even grades itself: minutes projections land within ±4.6 min on average (it leans low by 0.7), across 400 graded.
What to expect 🎯
honest history, not a promiseWe grade every call against the box score. We're good — not perfect, and nobody is. So instead of hyping, here's how often our calls have actually hit, grouped by how confident the system was when it published them. Every angle you unlock is labeled with its confidence, so you know which plays we stand behind most.
Medium confidence
56%
hit rate · 1370/2447 graded
solid, with more variance
Past results never guarantee future outcomes. This is data-driven analysis for entertainment, not betting advice.
Recent graded calls
rolling window: 81 of 150 calls hit (54%) — sample below keeps that mix
✗ call missed
Laura Juskaite under 15.5 points · 2026-08-26
“Projected 9.937 points; faded over 15.5 points; he got 14 — the fade held.”
projected 9.937 pointsactual 141.5 to sparemodel prob 28%
Flau'jae Johnson under 19.5 points · 2026-08-26
“Projected 13.311 points; faded over 19.5 points; he got 20 — the fade missed.”
projected 13.311 pointsactual 20missed by 0.5model prob 27%
Isabelle Harrison over 0.5 assists · 2026-08-26
“Projected 1.599 assists; called over 0.5 assists; he got 1 — cleared by 0.5.”
projected 1.599 assistsactual 10.5 to sparemodel prob 80%
Temi Fagbenle under 5.5 rebounds · 2026-08-26
“Projected 3.783 rebounds; faded over 5.5 rebounds; he got 5 — the fade held.”
projected 3.783 reboundsactual 50.5 to sparemodel prob 18%
Jade Melbourne under 17.5 points · 2026-08-26
“Projected 10.376 points; faded over 17.5 points; he got 16 — the fade held.”
projected 10.376 pointsactual 161.5 to sparemodel prob 17%
Flau'jae Johnson under 3.5 assists · 2026-08-26
“Projected 2.761 assists; faded over 3.5 assists; he got 2 — the fade held.”
projected 2.761 assistsactual 21.5 to sparemodel prob 40%
Temi Fagbenle under 8.5 points · 2026-08-26
“Projected 5.541 points; faded over 8.5 points; he got 8 — the fade held.”
projected 5.541 pointsactual 80.5 to sparemodel prob 38%
Laura Juskaite under 20.5 pts+reb+ast · 2026-08-26
“Projected 16.097 pts+reb+ast; faded over 20.5 pts+reb+ast; he got 26 — the fade missed.”
projected 16.097 pts+reb+astactual 26missed by 5.5model prob 38%
Laura Juskaite under 2.5 assists · 2026-08-26
“Projected 1.708 assists; faded over 2.5 assists; he got 3 — the fade missed.”
projected 1.708 assistsactual 3missed by 0.5model prob 34%
Isabelle Harrison under 15.5 points · 2026-08-26
“Projected 10.471 points; faded over 15.5 points; he got 17 — the fade missed.”
projected 10.471 pointsactual 17missed by 1.5model prob 33%
Isabelle Harrison under 24.5 pts+reb+ast · 2026-08-26
“Projected 17.282 pts+reb+ast; faded over 24.5 pts+reb+ast; he got 32 — the fade missed.”
projected 17.282 pts+reb+astactual 32missed by 7.5model prob 31%
Showing a representative sample of 12 from the last 150 graded calls — proportions of hits and misses are preserved, never cherry-picked. Unlocked games always show you every receipt on the game page.
Track record 🧾
Win rate
| Wnba Player Rebounds NO | 61% (256/422) |
| Wnba Player Assists NO | 58% (199/341) |
| Wnba Player Threes NO | 64% (200/313) |
| Wnba Player Points NO | 54% (151/281) |
| Wnba Player Points YES | 54% (148/274) |
| Wnba Player Pra NO | 48% (106/220) |
| Wnba Player Threes YES | 59% (101/170) |
| Wnba Player Pra YES | 51% (82/162) |
| Wnba Player Rebounds YES | 47% (74/156) |
| Wnba Player Assists YES | 49% (53/108) |
ROI
| Wnba Player Rebounds NO | +14.3% (422 bets) |
| Wnba Player Assists NO | +5.5% (341 bets) |
| Wnba Player Threes NO | +9.4% (313 bets) |
| Wnba Player Points NO | +5.8% (281 bets) |
| Wnba Player Points YES | +6.4% (274 bets) |
| Wnba Player Pra NO | -4.7% (220 bets) |
| Wnba Player Threes YES | +4.6% (170 bets) |
| Wnba Player Pra YES | +1.1% (162 bets) |
| Wnba Player Rebounds YES | -9.9% (156 bets) |
| Wnba Player Assists YES | -5.9% (108 bets) |
Calibration (predicted vs actual)
| Wnba Player Rebounds | 40% → 42% (-1.5%) |
| Wnba Player Points | 48% → 50% (-2.2%) |
| Wnba Player Threes | 43% → 44% (-1.6%) |
| Wnba Player Assists | 39% → 43% (-4.0%) |
| Wnba Player Pra | 45% → 51% (-6.7%) |
Projection accuracy (how close were we)
| Wnba Player Rebounds (578) | ±2.2 (bias -0.3) |
| Wnba Player Points (555) | ±5.2 (bias -1.5) |
| Wnba Player Threes (483) | ±1.1 (bias -0.2) |
| Wnba Player Assists (449) | ±1.7 (bias -0.5) |
| Wnba Player Pra (382) | ±7.1 (bias -2.1) |
What we refuse to sell 🚫
When the data behind an angle goes stale — a scratched player, a market that isn't actually offered, a thin sample — we suppress the angle instead of selling it. Nothing suppressed in the current window.
We score every bet type on how predictable it actually is and de-emphasize the coin-flips. That's why you'll see fewer "hits + runs + RBIs" plays here than on picks Twitter.
Parlay Bakery presents data-driven suggestions and historical statistical analysis for entertainment. It does not give betting advice, does not guarantee outcomes, and does not place bets on anyone's behalf.