José Caballero over 0.5 stolen bases · 2026-08-26
“Projected 0.3091 stolen bases; called over 0.5 stolen bases; he got 0 — missed the line by 0.5.”
projected 0.3091 stolen basesactual 0missed by 0.5model prob 25%
⚾ MLB receipts 🧾
Every angle we publish gets graded against the box score, and the receipts live here — how close the projection was, whether the call cleared, and by how much. Hits and misses both. If the numbers are ugly some week, you'll see that too.
The picks we stand behind
Prime picks hit 67%
1151 of 1730 graded · solid picks 59% (3928)
We grade every call — hits and misses — but a low-conviction lean shouldn't count the same as a top pick. This is how the plays we actually feature have done.
What to expect 🎯
honest history, not a promiseWe grade every call against the box score. We're good — not perfect, and nobody is. So instead of hyping, here's how often our calls have actually hit, grouped by how confident the system was when it published them. Every angle you unlock is labeled with its confidence, so you know which plays we stand behind most.
High confidence
55%
hit rate · 252/456 graded
our surest calls
Medium confidence
55%
hit rate · 5627/10263 graded
solid, with more variance
Past results never guarantee future outcomes. This is data-driven analysis for entertainment, not betting advice.
Recent graded calls
rolling window: 84 of 150 calls hit (56%) — sample below keeps that mix
✗ call missed
Spencer Jones 2+ total bases · 2026-08-26
“Projected 1.4318 total bases; called 2+ total bases; he got 1 — missed the line by 1.”
projected 1.4318 total basesactual 1missed by 1model prob 43%
Jazz Chisholm Jr. over 0.5 stolen bases · 2026-08-26
“Projected 0.3482 stolen bases; called over 0.5 stolen bases; he got 1 — cleared by 0.5.”
projected 0.3482 stolen basesactual 10.5 to sparemodel prob 27%
Jazz Chisholm Jr. under 0.5 hits · 2026-08-26
“Projected 0.5817 hits; faded over 0.5 hits; he got 3 — the fade missed.”
projected 0.5817 hitsactual 3missed by 2.5model prob 46%
Ben Rice 2+ total bases · 2026-08-26
“Projected 2.0027 total bases; called 2+ total bases; he got 4 — cleared by 2.”
projected 2.0027 total basesactual 42 to sparemodel prob 48%
Cody Bellinger over 0.5 walks · 2026-08-26
“Projected 0.6621 walks; called over 0.5 walks; he got 0 — missed the line by 0.5.”
projected 0.6621 walksactual 0missed by 0.5model prob 43%
Ben Rice over 0.5 walks · 2026-08-26
“Projected 0.5611 walks; called over 0.5 walks; he got 3 — cleared by 2.5.”
projected 0.5611 walksactual 32.5 to sparemodel prob 43%
Austin Wells under 0.5 hits · 2026-08-26
“Projected 0.4872 hits; faded over 0.5 hits; he got 2 — the fade missed.”
projected 0.4872 hitsactual 2missed by 1.5model prob 40%
Luis García Jr. 2+ total bases · 2026-08-26
“Projected 2.3692 total bases; called 2+ total bases; he got 6 — cleared by 4.”
projected 2.3692 total basesactual 64 to sparemodel prob 60%
Jake McCarthy over 0.5 stolen bases · 2026-08-26
“Projected 0.2895 stolen bases; called over 0.5 stolen bases; he got 1 — cleared by 0.5.”
projected 0.2895 stolen basesactual 10.5 to sparemodel prob 25%
Jake McCarthy under 0.5 walks · 2026-08-26
“Projected 0.1948 walks; faded over 0.5 walks; he got 0 — the fade held.”
projected 0.1948 walksactual 00.5 to sparemodel prob 20%
Hunter Goodman over 0.5 hits · 2026-08-26
“Projected 1.3467 hits; called over 0.5 hits; he got 2 — cleared by 1.5.”
projected 1.3467 hitsactual 21.5 to sparemodel prob 67%
Showing a representative sample of 12 from the last 150 graded calls — proportions of hits and misses are preserved, never cherry-picked. Unlocked games always show you every receipt on the game page.
Track record 🧾
Win rate
| Player Total Bases YES | 39% (671/1729) |
| Player Home Run NO | 92% (1414/1538) |
| Player Home Run YES | 16% (195/1238) |
| Player Hits NO | 45% (508/1132) |
| Player Total Bases NO | 69% (758/1094) |
| Player Walks NO | 79% (742/937) |
| Player Hits YES | 63% (581/926) |
| Player Walks YES | 39% (324/840) |
| Player Pitcher Outs YES | 50% (163/325) |
| Player Strikeouts NO | 77% (232/303) |
| Player Strikeouts YES | 51% (139/272) |
| Player Stolen Bases YES | 17% (32/193) |
| Player Pitcher Outs NO | 63% (120/192) |
ROI
| Player Total Bases YES | -18.8% (1506 bets) |
| Player Hits NO | -3.4% (921 bets) |
| Player Total Bases NO | +35.3% (826 bets) |
| Player Hits YES | +5.6% (759 bets) |
| Player Walks YES | -0.6% (711 bets) |
| Player Walks NO | +4.3% (616 bets) |
| Player Pitcher Outs YES | +7.7% (267 bets) |
| Player Strikeouts NO | +49.2% (258 bets) |
| Player Strikeouts YES | +10.9% (239 bets) |
| Player Stolen Bases YES | -30.1% (162 bets) |
| Player Pitcher Outs NO | +22.9% (158 bets) |
Calibration (predicted vs actual)
| Player Total Bases | 43% → 36% (+7.5%) |
| Player Home Run | 14% → 11% (+2.4%) |
| Player Hits | 59% → 59% (+0.3%) |
| Player Walks | 30% → 29% (+0.4%) |
| Player Strikeouts | 45% → 37% (+8.0%) |
| Player Pitcher Outs | 49% → 45% (+4.0%) |
| Player Stolen Bases | 28% → 17% (+11.8%) |
Projection accuracy (how close were we)
| Player Total Bases (2823) | ±1.6 (bias +0.3) |
| Player Home Run (2776) | ±0.3 (bias +0.1) |
| Player Hits (2058) | ±0.8 (bias +0.2) |
| Player Walks (1777) | ±0.5 (bias +0.0) |
| Player Strikeouts (575) | ±2.1 (bias +0.5) |
| Player Pitcher Outs (517) | ±4.2 (bias +2.2) |
| Player Stolen Bases (193) | ±0.4 (bias +0.2) |
Closing-line value (vs the market's close)
| Player Hits (607 bets) | -6.3% · beat close 32% |
| Player Walks (506 bets) | +26.7% · beat close 70% |
| Player Total Bases (444 bets) | +3.9% · beat close 57% |
| Player Stolen Bases (62 bets) | -0.2% · beat close 31% |
| Player Strikeouts (33 bets) | +3.0% · beat close 67% |
| Player Pitcher Outs (21 bets) | +1.1% · beat close 38% |
What we refuse to sell 🚫
When the data behind an angle goes stale — a scratched player, a market that isn't actually offered, a thin sample — we suppress the angle instead of selling it. Nothing suppressed in the current window.
Which bet types are actually predictable
Home Run 84%Walks 70%Hits 69%Pitcher Outs 68%Strikeouts 68%Total Bases 50%Hits Runs Rbis 44%Stolen Bases 27%
We score every bet type on how predictable it actually is and de-emphasize the coin-flips. That's why you'll see fewer "hits + runs + RBIs" plays here than on picks Twitter.
Parlay Bakery presents data-driven suggestions and historical statistical analysis for entertainment. It does not give betting advice, does not guarantee outcomes, and does not place bets on anyone's behalf.